2011-12-01-KCVH-SC Mtn and Gabilan Wave-1CH - Matt Gillis–Low Level NE Jet High Wind Event

Photos: 2011-12-01-KCVH-SC Mtn and Gabilan Wave-1CH - Matt Gillis - Picasa Web Albums
To: <hgcgroup@yahoogroups.com>
From: "Matt Gillis" <mattman@ix.netcom.com>
Subject: RE: [hgcgroup] Re: Serious winds -- low level jet
With regards to primary, secondary wave etc., with this event and looking at the forecast wave being propagated off the sierra crest (‘backward Sierra Wave’), the period was likely initiated well upwind of the SC mtns with the SC Mtns simply augmenting the wave.  This couple with high winds tended to produce a long period wave.  This might be a case of appropriate model scale estimates, on the influence of larger versus smaller scale.  Usually it is lack of resolution at microscale that creates uncertainty.  I wonder if this is a case of the RASP not taking into account the breadth of the event on influencing local triggers.
-Matt
From: hgcgroup@yahoogroups.com [mailto:hgcgroup@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Matt Gillis
Sent: Friday, December 02, 2011 3:26 PM
To: hgcgroup@yahoogroups.com
Subject: RE: [hgcgroup] Re: Serious winds
The wave was much further downwind than ‘normal’, probably due to the long period from the higher winds, particularly at low level.  I was using the RASP VV and referenced them for initially finding the wave.  The lee of the SC Mtns was indicating the best entry spot between Aptos and Loma Prieta.  Nada, the RASP was not accurate in the wave position and possibly period there, other areas such as the Salinas Valley later were further downwind also.  The period in the RASP was showing about 10 nm when it appear to me that it was probably more like ~15 nm. Because of very strong conditions, I considered this comparable to towsurfing into big waves but not being able to see where the wave is.  Subsequently, [which is the source of Quests comment] I stayed on tow to search it out when it wasn’t where advertised.  My intuition said it was downwind, but my standard approach is to exhaust upwind advantages first.  When that proved unfruitful we went downwind and found it right, ironically, over First Peak" at Pleasure Point.  I was being somewhat convservative, since we were otherwise committed to Watsonville.  This was further augmented by the fact that it was a “two hands on the stick” tow down lower, the sink and strong winds down in the mix could leave little margin if in the wrong spot…or major pucker for a sucker.    Nevertheless, when I found it, it was good, elevator to 17.9K.  The line was close to the coast near Santa Cruz but went out over the ocean.  ER tried to push up and find a bar closer to the crest of the SC Mtns, but found sink.  When I turned near Pescadero, I was going to try and push upwind and find an upwind bar, but progress was so slow and with Class B in front, decided to explore the options south.   Soaring in conditions this strong made even slight errors costly time wise to get back into position.  That is to say, the wave can giveth and taketh away not just quickly, but can put one in a stationary hard spot with limited options, until it giveth again.  Although the sweet spots were 6-8 knots at best glider, this usually meant going backwards at a noticeable clip.  Needless to say, it took 2.5 hours out of the afternoon exploring the SC Mtn Wave, which didn’t leave much daylight left for exploration south.   I had downloaded the RASP VVs onto my Droid to compare relative position of the wave and used this to compare target spots.    ER and us in 1CH headed south toward Salinas, ER following a track further east.  Right over Salinas there was really good bounce and a nice bar running down the valley.   Above 17K I was able to covert lift to speed and fly at 90-100 knots in a more productive manner.  I turned near Soledad since we needed to get back before dark.  We topped out at 17.9K near Salinas and burned off 13K getting back to just north of the airport at 5K; I maintained a notch above the required glide of about 6:1 with emphasis on speed.  Had a nice smooth x-wind landing in spite of the wind shear.
From that position, it would have been easy to have tested the forecast Arroyo Seco bounce and if that was happening, the Big Sur bounce would have been easily reached.  The Big Sur/Santa Lucia Range had the hottest forecast VV of all and it was even marked by a ’haze bar.   Strategy would have been to push quartering downwind (perp. thru strong sink) from 17.9 and then dogleg if it was elusive, using San Simeon as an alternate.   Launching earlier with electric socks and some hot tea would have made it doable and bearable.  And yes, with the winds yesterday I probably would have been having dinner in SLO with Morgan    Although Carmel Valley or Arroyo Seco may have had a short enough frequency bounce to get back upwind into the Gabilan Wave.
Got a few pics of ER that are˜keepers I will post later.  Flight trace is now on OLC.
-Matt
From: hgcgroup@yahoogroups.com [mailto:hgcgroup@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Ramy Yanetz
Sent: Friday, December 02, 2011 2:16 PM
To: hgcgroup@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [hgcgroup] Re: Serious winds
Eric, you saying the wave was mostly in the familiar places, but your traces showing way further downwind than usual. Was it hard to get in? I am curious if you were flying the secondary or was it the primary? reason I am curious about it is that today I could not find wave in the usual spot downwind of Mt Diablo although it was blowing 37 knots, and I suspect the wave was much further downwind in class bravo, so couldn't confirm it. A double blow for me so far. One more chance tomorrow but not sure where to look for the wave. Glider is setup and ready at Byron.
Ramy

From: Eric Rupp <ericrupp@got.net>
To: hgcgroup@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Thursday, December 1, 2011 11:09 PM
Subject: [hgcgroup] Re: Serious winds
Sorry to make it hard to work today...
Very cool sight seeing with wave mostly in the familiar places. Got further northwest than before (up to 6nm off shore) and south to Salinas. Matt went down the Salinas Valley and found strong wave lift - next time. Harry flew with friend Jeremy and they tried to stay low to stay warmer. My feet were blocks of ice after a few hours. Electric socks?
Getting back from Salinas from near 18,000 feet wasn't a gimme with head winds (up to 100 knots earlier). After getting shot down on my first attempt I retreated downwind, climbed over Salinas, then flew north to avoid charging directly into the wind. Still lost 11k' in 14 nm as I approached Hollister! Exciting landing with 20/G28 knots out of the north.
All in a days work
Eric
--- In hgcgroup@yahoogroups.com, Ramy Yanetz <ryanetz@...> wrote:
>
> Spot shows Matt and Eric way out over the ocean between Santa Cruz and Half Moon Bay. Another first from Hollister.
> Wish I joined them...
> Â
> Ramy
>
> From: Quest <questiam@...>
> >To: "hgcgroup@yahoogroups.com" <hgcgroup@yahoogroups.com>
> >Sent: Thursday, December 1, 2011 9:32 AM
> >Subject: Re: [hgcgroup] Re: Serious winds
> >
> >
> > 
> >Hi everybody,
> >
> >
> >For those who hadn't seen my post on Monday regarding tows today, this is just a confirmation of Harry's posting that HSC will in fact be providing tows all day Thursday, and then of course on Friday as well.
> >
> >
> >
> >Happy wave flying,
> >Quest
> >
> >
> >
> >From: Harry Fox <harryfox@...>
> >To: hgcgroup@yahoogroups.com
> >Sent: Thursday, December 1, 2011 8:56 AM
> >Subject: RE: [hgcgroup] Re: Serious winds
> >
> >
> > 
> >There are tows available at Hollister this morning, starting around 10AM.  Matt is flying with Haven, I'm coming over with a friend around 10:30.
> >Â
> >From:hgcgroup@yahoogroups.com [mailto:hgcgroup@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Eric Rupp
> >Sent: Thursday, December 01, 2011 8:16 AM
> >To: hgcgroup@yahoogroups.com
> >Subject: [hgcgroup] Re: Serious winds
> >
> > 
> >Giving the wave a try seems like a reasonable proposition - starting around the Aromas quarry or Watsonville. Winds are relatively calm at Hollister and Salinas (<10 knots, but it's blowing like stink at my house at 500' in Santa Cruz).
> >
> >What time can we tow?
> >
> >Eric
> >
> >--- In hgcgroup@yahoogroups.com, "cah1ch" <charlie@> wrote:
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> Any thoughts about penetrating upwind to the (reverse) Sierra wave over the foothills. Take a look at the Byron RASP and the VV 850,700,500 for 1000 and 1300. It looks like jumps along the harmonics are possible from the Pacheco Pass area. I'm in the Phoenix area but wish I was there!
> >>
> >> Charlie
> >>
> >> --- In hgcgroup@yahoogroups.com, Morgan Hall <morhall@> wrote:
> >> >
> >> > Noticed a weather station with barbs and flags I'd never seen before.
> >> > Gusts to nearly 100mph tonight.
> >> >
> >> > Mt Umunhum, San Jose, CA
> >> > http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KCASANJO78&day=30&year=2011&month=11&graphspan=day
> >> >
> >>

To: <hgcgroup@yahoogroups.com>
From: "Matt Gillis" <mattman@ix.netcom.com>
Subject: RE: [hgcgroup] North wind wave on Thursday-sounding for SC Mtns--looking good
Quest,
It looks like Thursday will be better than Wednesday with a more easterly component.   It could be a very good offshore wave day.  Maybe Buzz and Ramy will come out and run the Santa Lucia’s south, top out over Santa Barbara and final glide to Catalina [a little weaker further south closer to the low, but velocities still look good with the jet shift in that direction]? I imagine they take glider trailers on the ferry. 
Sounding is for Thursday in the lee of SC Mtns.  The GFS 700 mb charts below show the streak coming through the Bay Area and decreasing toward sunset.  As Doug commented out of Reno, the jet appears to be moving fast.   Sounding shows ~10-15 knot decrease in wind speed by 0z.  Max winds about 80 knots at 18K dropping to ~70 knots at 0z.   Definitely strong, winds ramp quick so penetration could be an issue even down low; but, the conditions look pretty good for systemic wave along the coastal ranges.  Worth a higher tow to get into a sweet spot.  When the RASP 3.0 km comes out later it may light up even better than Wednesday.
Since Quest is going to be there anyway, I gotta try.  Anybody else game?
-Matt
To: <hgcgroup@yahoogroups.com>
From: "Matt Gillis" <mattman@ix.netcom.com>
Subject: RE: [hgcgroup] North wind wave on Thursday-sounding for Aromas Quarry
Thanks once again to Kurt Thames for his fine Google map FSL sounding popper upper.
Snapping a sounding for Aromas Quarry we have 24 knots with BL top/inversion just above ridgetop. Strong surface inversion early.  Although the wind profile steadies at ~70 knots from 10-18K there is good progression to that.  We have seen good conditions with less favorable profiles.  Slight burble in the profile during mid-day but then it looks like it smooth gradient toward sunset.  Need to check soundings for spots in other good trigger zones on the local ranges.  The high res RASP, when it comes out, resolves wave position well.  Because of the position of the low/jet, looks like conditions will be best from ~Hollister north to…. The North Bay; but, that could change with this  ‘spinning top’ in the mix.
If Quest is towing, I’ll probably check it

image0018.png


image0024.png
out.
-Matt
To: hgcgroup@yahoogroups.com
From: "Matt Gillis" <mattman@ix.netcom.com>
Subject: RE: [hgcgroup] North wind wave on Thursday
Yes, it has improved in the 850 mb from yesterday.  The jet wrapping around the high and spinning the inside slider is better lined up, broader, and more sustained with the low not progressing east as quickly, in fact retrograding.  Wednesday is looking good too but with a more northerly component.    Seasonable timing.  Have to tune into the soundings, but ~35 knots at 5K is a good clue. 
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_looper.php?PROD 11112812_WST_GFS_850_HGT_WINDS   The dynamics are pretty cool the way the low spins around the high from the ~meridional jet; very dynamic, like the jet is spinning a top.
-Matt
From: hgcgroup@yahoogroups.com [mailto:hgcgroup@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Harry Fox
Sent: Monday, November 28, 2011 1:54 PM
To: hgcgroup@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [hgcgroup] North wind wave on Thursday
Looks like strong northeast winds on Thursday -- should set up good wave.
-- Harry